Why 2025 and Early 2026 May Be the Smartest Time to Buy a Home—Before Prices Rise Again

Albert Retowsky
Dec 17, 2025
2 min read

After several years of rapid appreciation, new housing prices across Maryland have leveled off (for now). In areas like Anne Arundel County values have held steady—neither surging nor dropping. At first glance, this “flat” market makes many buyers think waiting is the safer move.

But in reality, this window may be one of the best opportunities buyers will see for years, and it comes down to three key factors: builder incentives, interest rate expectations, and long-term affordability.

1. Prices Are Flat—but Incentives Are Quietly Making Homes Cheaper

Builders rarely lower base prices. Instead, when the market cools even slightly, they offer incentives to keep sales moving. Right now, we’re seeing unusually generous options such as:

Closing cost credits
Interest rate buydowns
Free upgrades or design center allowances
Reduced lot premiums

These incentives effectively lower the true cost of purchasing a new home—even while sale prices appear unchanged.

When rates fall and demand picks back up, these incentives will disappear quickly. Historically, builders pull them back the moment foot traffic increases.

2. When Rates Drop, Competition Will Return Fast

Most industry analysts expect interest rates to ease through 2025 and 2026. When that happens, sidelined buyers—those waiting for “the bottom”—will all re-enter the market at once.

That means:

More bidding wars
Higher premiums in top school districts
Faster price escalations
Fewer incentives

In short:

Buying when rates are high but incentives are strong is often cheaper than buying later with low rates and no incentives.

And remember, you can refinance. You can’t “undo” paying more for the house itself.

3. Maryland’s Demand Isn’t Going Anywhere

Across Anne Arundel and surrounding counties, demand continues to outweigh supply. Limited land, tight inventory, and desirable school districts keep new construction resilient.

Even with flat pricing today:

New communities are still selling steadily
Quality new builds in good districts retain value
Resale inventory remains historically low

This is exactly the type of market where early buyers benefit most once momentum returns.

4. Buy Now, Refinance Later: A Strategy That Works

Many buyers get stuck watching interest rates instead of watching total cost of ownership. But the smarter approach in today’s environment is:

Buy the home you want now while incentives reduce the upfront cost.
Refinance later when rates drop—lowering your monthly payment.

This strategy has already helped thousands of homeowners who bought during the last rate cycle. They locked in a home before prices rose again, then refinanced into a lower payment months or years later.